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In order for a hostage standoff to work, everyone has to sincerely believe the hostage takers are prepared to follow through on their threats. In the case of the Republicans' latest debt-ceiling crisis, that means President Obama and congressional Democrats have to be convinced that GOP policymakers will hurt Americans on purpose unless Dem meet Republicans' demands.
But if you listen closely, you might notice that the GOP's resolve is a little shaky. House Speaker John Boehner talked to the Wall Street Journal's Stephen Moore the other day.
I ask Mr. Boehner if he will take the debt-ceiling talks to the brink -- risking a government shutdown and debt downgrade from the credit agencies -- given that it didn't work in 2011 and President Obama has said he won't bargain on the matter.
The debt bill is "one point of leverage," Mr. Boehner says, but he also hedges, noting that it is "not the ultimate leverage." He says that Republicans won't back down from the so-called Boehner rule: that every dollar of raising the debt ceiling will require one dollar of spending cuts over the next 10 years. Rather than forcing a deal, the insistence may result in a series of monthly debt-ceiling increases.
We'd need a little more information to understand exactly what the Speaker is thinking, but the fact that Boehner hedged at all on using the debt ceiling suggests there's at least a small crack in the wall.
Indeed, it's not the only one. The Washington Post quoted Rep. Billy Long (R-Mo.) the other day questioning the utility of the strategy, noting "no one knows the ramifications of not passing a debt ceiling increase." Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) was reluctant to rattle his saber, too, in his Sunday show appearances.
Newt Gingrich and the Wall Street Journal's conservative editorial board have also raised concerns about the apparent Republican plan. (I use the word "plan" loosely; to date GOP leaders have indicated they intend to hold the debt ceiling hostage, but they have not yet figured out what to put on the ransom note.)
And what about the prospect of "a series of monthly debt-ceiling increases"?
As a policy matter, it's hardly a responsible approach to national finances. The United States, easily the wealthiest country on the planet, will decide every month whether it will continue to pay its bills, while we work through manufactured political crises instigated by radicalized lawmakers? Instead of annual hostage-taking strategies undermining global faith America's finances, the Speaker of the House wants to see this on a monthly basis?
And as a political matter, as Greg Sargent explained yesterday, Boehner's willingness to even bring this up as a possible approach sheds light on a larger truth: "[T]his should be read, if anything, as a sign of weakness."
It's essentially a concession that the debt limit has to be raised; Boehner is merely threatening to drag his feet as he allows the inevitable to happen. But it's just nonsense. The business community is not going to go for such a course of action, to put it mildly. And it risks dragging the country through monthly threats of default, a terrible thing to inflict on the American people.
Ultimately, what this highlights is the utter incoherence of the GOP position on the debt ceiling. Republican leaders know they have to raise the debt limit -- they know the threat not to do this isn't credible, and they need to signal to the business community that they don't view this option seriously -- yet they want to continue to use it as leverage to get what they want, anyway.
There will still be bipartisan talks because both the White House and congressional Republicans want to avoid the automatic sequestration talks, but so long as President Obama sticks to his guns and insists that the debt limit is not open to negotiation, GOP leaders will continue to look at a hostage they clearly do not want to shoot.
Maybe they should have thought of this sooner.
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Boehner is merely threatening to drag his feet as he allows the inevitable to happen.
So, when I tell my kids to clean their rooms, they whine and kick and pout, anything to drag it out.
I point out to them that the longer they take to clean, the less time they will have to do fun stuff.
The problem is that the "fun stuff" of Congress is passing bills, and I don't see anything on the horizon...Immigration, gun control, nominees for various posts...That this Congress has any interest in passing.
Lead, follow or get out of the way, please.
well, the polls told them that Mr. Romney would be President, so, really, they didn't plan for any contingencies.
Conjecture has it that Boehner will hold the debt ceiling hostage in exchange for a Senate budget. Oh the horror!
Sounds to me like he got the memo from Grover Norquist. The "monthly" is only if the President behaves himself, otherwise his allowance gets cut to weekly.
In business there are two paths:
In the first, you find out what customers want, and provide it. Also, streamlining production, improving workforce skills and efficiency, introducing new products. Your employees are your most valuable asset.
In the second, you cut costs any way possible, in order to show quarterly profits, rising stock prices, and shareholder gains. Your return on investment is your most valuable asset.
Guess which one the Republican congress prefers?
Looks like Obama should play is cards close to the vest. If he came out and said he'd had a $1 trillion platinum coin minted, it might be doing the GOP a favor by giving them an out (and one they can blame on Obama!) from a self-generated crisis they're discovering they really don't want to be in.
He should certainly keep his options open just in case they don't back down after all, but the best outcome would be if he stands his ground and they cave, without revealing whether he'd have resorted to platinum coins, moral obligation bonds, or whatever.
If nothing else, the White House should leak the suggestion that a "short list" of artists to design the trillion dollar coin is being drawn up.
If the idea accomplishes nothing else, at least we would see the word 'apoplexy' returned to common usage by the corporate media.
Here's another idea. In future, why not require that the debt ceiling be raised before Congress passes any appropriations or budget bills that would require more funds than the extant debt ceiling would allow?
With anything like warning that this insanity was about to be loosed on the world, Obama could have insisted on it as a condition of every spending bill or else veto the sucker.
Why we haven't seen that since 2011 is another matter.
Good idea. I've recommended a similar approach except that I recommend that every appropriations bill contain a provision to raise the debt ceiling by the amount of the appropriation, if needed. Coupling it with the budget resolution wouldn't matter substantively but it could be a negative since it would give the republicans another opportunity to fight with the senate.
I read somewhere that this used to be standard.
jjim, #7.3,
It was standard, and always raised. Congress always knew it had to pay for what it spent or appropriated. This was a foregone conclusion: sign on the dotted line. No fuss.
But the T-Party caucus thinks this way:
"I ran up a bunch of debt, and now instead of paying my debt, I am going to only work part time and buy a new Cadillac on credit and you-all folks who don't like it can kiss my ass.
No that is the current thinking of the average Obama voter. I'll be willing to bet that 99 percent of the maddowblog posters have credit card debt over $10,000.00 I still can't believe that the left seems to think that there should not be any spending cuts on "entitlements" That word in itself is BS . You are not entitled to anything you haven't payed for PERIOD.
WELL, this one is easy. Yes, the word "entitlements" is BS - because, you moron, we have indeed paid for them. Social Security, Medicare and Unemployment Insurance Benefits are SOCIAL INSURANCE, and we pay our premiums with every paycheck. PERIOD.
Well Browneye
I guess 2 out of 3 isn't too bad considering your disability. Unemployment insurance is not taken from your paycheck. Your employer pays that premium. Why do you feel "entitled" to your ex employers money after 26 weeks? I believe that Dear Ruler has it up to 99 weeks so far. If Obama and the Senate gave that same employer a decent tax break, all those people they layed off would still be working and paying into SOCIAL INSURANCE instead of drawing from it. An added benefit would be that the debt would drop like a rock. Unless the spendaholics in Washington decide to waste even more of OUR money.
Watch as the Republicans can't help themselves from taking us to near ruin! The fall out of this ill-be-gotten strategy will be a 2014 election cycle in which incumbent Republican House members will have to fortify their gerrymandered districts to survive as the Senate sees all incumbent Republicans replaced with the Democratic brand!
Someone needs to tell Boehner, McConnell, and their Tea Partying faction - stupid is as stupid does! -Kevo
Is anyone getting tired of the terrorist threats from the RIGHT? I certainly am. It is clear the Democrats are for all of us. The RIGHT... Childish, destructive brats. Grow the hell up! Do your damn jobs!
These fools act like their are playing a game of Monopoly and Risk at the same time. Greed. Power. Who cares about the collateral damage they inflict. Fools.
The fact is that holding the debt ceiling hostage is not an option. The president is not going to allow this to happen, as the consequences would be truly dire and virtually irreversible; much worse than they knew previously. The congress, including the Boehner caucus, has been made aware of the five really terrible things that would happen if we default. It would be a global crisis, not just an American tragedy.
They would really, in light of what they've been told, be creating a treasonous and wounding act on their own country. It would be a terrible thing to do to the American people and I cannot imagine how they could justify it by any ideology known to man.
Hey Bonehead, your corporate pimps called - they said "drag your feet if you want to but remember how long it took them to find Jimmy Hoffa"........
The Boner rule; be a dick, be a totally blatant dick about everything. Some drunks are just Super fun!
The richest 1% have accumulated a total net worth of about 20 trillion dollars ( most of it just 'redistributed' upward from the working majority since 1980 by Reagan's flatter, 'fairer' tax rates because his economic policies did not increase the inflation adjusted GDP growth rate), so an effective ( loophole free ) top estate tax rate of 90% on marginal wealth over 50 million dollars would generate enough revenue within a generation to eliminate our national debt.
And the families of the richest 1%, with about 4 trillion left, would still be the richest 1%.
Republican'ts are toying with their most potent strategic weapon of the last 3 decades: the willingness to balloon the national debt in order to "starve the beast" of any subsequent Democratic administration. Only by pointing to a huge national debt can Republicans hope to recruit the support they need to really dismember Medicare, and later, Social Security. But that debt only gets racked up if people and institutions want T-bills, and after a couple of defaults (or threats to default) maybe they won't. I don't know what kind of secret handshake or wink they will use to reassure the idle rich (their base) while they prepare to screw them over.
Yep, you nailed it. We'd better pray that Obama means what he says. If they refuse to raise the debt ceiling, all Hell will break loose on them,
and the country and the world.
In short, these idiots are prepared to take a hostage they can't shoot, can't get money for, and can't release.
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