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A few weeks after the 2012 elections, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) set a short-term goal: keep 2014 retirements within his caucus to a minimum. In particular, Reid's attention was focused on Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-W.Va.).
In this case, Reid's arm-twisting came up short.
Senator John D. Rockefeller IV of West Virginia, the scion of the Rockefeller family who established himself as a liberal voice in Congress, said on Friday that he would retire in 2014 at the completion of his fifth term in the Senate. [...]
The decision was not a surprise. In June, Mr. Rockefeller took to the Senate floor to oppose Republican efforts to block a regulation on mercury emissions from coal-fired power plants, declaring, "The coal industry today would rather attack false enemies and deny real problems than find solutions." The speech was greeted with shock in coal-dependent West Virginia and led immediately to speculation that he would not seek a sixth term in 2014.
Looking ahead, Rockefeller's retirement sets the stage for a very interesting contest next year. Ed Kilgore makes the case that the "landscape is unfavorable" to Senate Democrats in 2014, and that's certainly true, especially given dreadful Democratic voter-turnout rates in midterms.
It's worth noting, however, that West Virginia is fairly unique in this respect: President Obama is remarkably unpopular in the state, losing literally every West Virginia county in 2012, which skews the midterm model. Dems arguably have a slightly better shot at keeping the seat in 2014 with fewer conservative voters motivated to head to the polls to vote against the president.
Indeed, rumor has it Rep. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.) is letting folks know he's interested in running, which he wouldn't do if he thought the race was hopeless.
Complicating matters, the picture for Republicans is not as straightforward as it might seem.
About a month ago, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) announced she's running for the Senate, whether Rockefeller retired or not, which came as a great relief to the Republican establishment who rightfully sees her as the best GOP candidate in the state.
But as we talked about at the time, what the party establishment wants and what the party base will tolerate are not always in sync. West Virginia might very well become yet another proxy fight.
On day one of her candidacy, Capito received criticism from two conservative groups known for mounting primary challenges against establishment-backed Republicans: the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund, a group founded by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.).
Chris Chocola, president of the Club, slammed her as an "establishment candidate," and Senate Conservatives Fund executive director Matt Hoskins said the group wouldn't endorse her.
For the record, Capito is pro-choice, she voted for S-CHIP, and she's voted to extend unemployment benefits, so some on the right are prepared to veto her candidacy, despite her otherwise-conservative credentials and strong poll numbers. Ideological purity, after all, comes at a high price.
Keep an eye on this one. West Virginia is likely to be one of the most important races of 2014.
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Wow. We've lost a lot of long time political figures lately. Kennedy. Lugar. Now Rockefeller?
True. But that wouldn't be such a big problem if Democrats were better at fostering up-and-coming young(er) party members. Republicans are, unfortunately, more conscientious about actually having respected party members standing ready to replace the oldies when they drop out.
Like when oldie Herb Kohl retired, the Republicans had respected party member Tommy Thompson ready to go in that Senate race.. against relative unknown Tammy Baldwin?
"Landscape is unfavorable?!?" WTF. What happened to all the DC chatter about how the obama campaign demonstrated how to motivate supporters to vote in huge numbers?
Talk about p*ssing away your advantage. What is so crazy about doing to West VA what Organizing for America did for the president in Boehner's state of Ohio?
Oh I know- the DNC expects candidates to drive their own organisations, and established officeholders are turf conscious- they don't want some alternate group talking to their constituents telling them god knows what.
I really really think the DNC is asleep at the wheel. We need a separate PAC- maybe one of the pro Obama super PACs to establish the ground game in all the states Dem House and Senate candidates have a chance of winning. 2012 proved it can be done, but not at the last second. It takes more than the few months available after the primaries. An insurgent Dem candidate can't do it without such help- such as doing pre- primary opposition work to properly shape the battlefield... like how McCaskill helped her preferred opponent win the GOP primary.
Victory in 2014 cannot be left to luck. There are national consequences if the GOP retains the House or takes Senate seats. That's why this challenge requires a National OFA style effort.
If the Grassroots organizer in chief would get behind this strategic move, the org would form up in short order. Sam Stein wrote many good pieces about how Obama might play a new kind of outside game after the election.
So far we have seen zero evidence of it.
WV has a history of voting against itself. Don't hold your breath because even if by some miracle a Democrat is elected, it will be a Dixie Democrat.
Why are we defeating ourselves before putting forth the efforts to retain the Senate and take the House? We Dems are not zealots, and sometimes this works against us. Let's unite for 2014 as we united for 2012. #DEMs2014 (twitter).
Is there still time to establish residency there for the 2014 election? I looked up famous living folk from W. Va and found lots of retired athletes, a porn star Alisandra Monroe and best of all Tony Anthony of spaghetti western fame. People will recognize him from some of his movie clips that would also make some good campaign ads.
Nobody wants to comment on what a complex person Sen. Rockefeller is?