The latest Time/CNN/ORC poll, released yesterday, shows President Obama's approval rating climbing to a three-year high shortly before his second inauguration. It's consistent with a general trend since Election Day 2012 -- after Obama won, his standing improved.
Congressional Republicans can't say the same. Josh Marshall flagged this interesting image, showing poll results on the generic congressional ballot. The red line shows support for Republicans, the blue line for Democrats.
Note, while Democrats aren't exactly setting records for popular support, their generic-ballot number is about where it was over the summer. The post-election dip for the GOP, however, has pushed them to their lowest point since early 2009.
It's obviously far too soon to seriously consider how the 2014 midterms are likely to play out -- this Congress just started two weeks ago -- and polls like these will shift more than once over the next two years.
The larger point, though, is that congressional Republicans haven't done much to impress the American mainstream over the last couple of months. Indeed, they've done the exact opposite. With a forced debt-ceiling crisis and possible government shutdown on the horizon, GOP lawmakers may be poised to make matters even worse for themselves.
With gerrymandered districts, House Republican leaders may simply assume that their majority is unbreakable, and they'll hold on no matter how reckless, irresponsible, or unpopular they become. But I'd remind GOP leaders that it would only take a net Democratic gain of 16 seats next year to give Nancy Pelosi back her Speaker's gavel. Are there 16 House districts, currently represented by a Republican, where mainstream voters may be willing to make a change? Sure there are.
It's something for John Boehner and Eric Cantor to consider when they're weighing hostage strategies and opposition to popular legislation.
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Are there 16 House districts, currently represented by a Republican, where mainstream voters may be willing to make a change?
The Left needs to take its cue from Howard Dean and start recruiting candidates in all House races. No sense in preaching to the converted - Take it to the people. Hopefully they were doing this 6 months ago. There has got to be a breaking point in some of these areas where the crazy just gets too much to take. There are a bunch of red-meat issues that may get even the right-most wing-nut primaried from the right. Exploit it.
"The Left needs to take its cue from Howard Dean and start recruiting candidates in all House races."
STOP MAKING SENSE!
Yes, it's difficult to compete with mass bribery. But we'll carry on until success or the country succumbs to corruption.
May I assume that by "mass bribery" you are referring to the Bush tax cuts and Medicare part D?
OMG! You mean people are electing representatives who actually represent them? Will this madness never cease!?!?
Take shooter seriously at your own peril. And no, he won't call you tomorrow.
shooter242
June 11, 2012 at 6:54 am
http://moelane.com/2012/06/09/troll-hunting-101/
I used to have at least a small modicum of respect for Shooter at least until yesterday when he got all "Truther" about Sandy Hook and went completely around the bend. I am sad to see that he has evidently moved back into the bubble.
Truther about Sandy Hook? I made a false claim of some sort?
Seriously , in a lot of districts they only need to put up a credible candidate who can run on the platform :
Hi my name is _______— and I'm not Bat$hit crazy.
They most certainly will have those newfangled video tape machines to point out the shortcomings of the opposition.
Problem with that is that out here in rural America the constituents who are just as Guano loco is increasing exponentially. The amount of misinformation these people swallow from FOX is staggering and when you correct them even with unimpeachable sources they think the facts are rigged. You stand a better chance of having a substantive political debate with your average Cocker Spaniel.
Sadly I believe you are right. You see it every day. Letters to the editor , with regurgitated Faux talking points, conversations on the street , comments on the blogs. Three words in and you can tell " Fox Derangement Syndrome" It's a Steve Doocy, Fox and friends kind of world . Facts don't matter
Dragoon is right. Even here in California I can drive 50 miles east of Los Angeles or 50 miles south and find the same folks.
16 friggin seats...with the lunatics the GOP has, the Dems should be able to pick off 16 of them.
With gerrymandering, the problem is that the constituents are more wacko than the congressman.
Gerrymandered districts are not the end all firewall our Congressional Republican friends think they are!
Smart Congressional Democrats would do well to press legislative ideas that will appeal to the common sense of the American electorate, force incumbent Republicans to take stands in support of moderation and compromise, and isolate this cancerous ideology by watching how the above two lead to a primary for these gerrymandered incumbents where the extremism of the Republican brand will be keenly on display for all to see! Concurrently, each gerrymandered district needs targeted activism calling into question the legislative priorities of the incumbent.
Come on voters of America - the GOP is just asking for a beating at the polls in 2014, and a continued campaign over the next two years will help lead to the punishment the Republican brand has surely earned! =Kevo
I am really disappointed by your lazy analysis. It is an example of innumeracy. You are asssuming generic polls will give you the same result as a poll in a given district. This disconnect is why too many people do not understand why change can not be effected. Further there are districts such as Jim Gerlach's 6th US house in PA that may have the potential to change. Emphasizing these makes more sense especially as you have the example of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania's_8th_congressional_district">8th US house</a> in PA which has flipped back and forth between Dummycrat and Taliban(you have to understand it is very hard to have much respect for the Democrats, read field negro blogspot about philly; the Taliban speaks for itself) this decade.
Gewehr: I honestly have way less respect for folks like you who play the false equivalency game between the R's and D's. Democrats are far from perfect, but you folks who try to imply that there is comparable responsibility for what is going on astound me. And BTW I don't think Benen is being "lazy" here at all, and I don't think he is reading too much into that poll.
A common tactic, "change is impossible, we should not try", keeps us from trying.
If only these numbers actually meant something.
Recent ratings of Congressional members have put their approval rating under 20%.
Even if you consider gerrymandering, the country still puts these same jerks back into office time and time again.
So you get a Michelle Bachmann who's ratings have got to be in the negative range, but whose constituents keep sending her back.
Let's see this chart after the midterm elections. Somehow, the Dems need to keep this momentum going for two years (plus).
The Democrats need a complete democracy agenda:
1. Redistricting reform (Federal oversight, nonpartisan)
2. Elections reform (see above; note 1 and 2 are Constitutional))
3. Filibuster reform
4. Campaign finance reform (key is not to keep out the rich, but to enable contributions by everyone else, who still have most of the money, e.g. by tax credits or vouchers)
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The Republicans and Nixon played the Southern strategy knowing the history of politics in that region. Then they compounded it with getting in bed with the religious right and eventually the Tea Party. Each political marriage was a voluntary act with full knowledge of the political views each faction represented. Moderate Republicans want the benefits of marriage without the detriments so they have abdicated taking any responsibility for the direction of the party. If the moderate Republicans can't find a way to divorce themselves from the radicals, then we should not feel sorry they are stuck in a bad marriage.
There are enough gerrymandered districts that went Republican by 55% or less in 2012 that could be won by Democrats in 2014. What the DNC, DCCC and OfA need to do is concentrate their efforts on those districts, plus any Democratic district that was carried by 55% or less. Add enough wins in those districts to the "safe" Democratic districts and Rep. Pelosi gets her gavel back.
Even as early as now, there are two things working in Democrats' favor for 2014: not only is our base is larger than the Republican base, as evidenced by the vote totals last year, but Republicans also turn out in lesser numbers for off-year elections. Unless there is correspondingly large GOTV effort on the part of Republicans in 2014, we would have an excellent opportunity to put some sensible representatives in the House.
And if the RWNJs currently there do try holding the debt ceiling hostage every three months, our job will only be that much easier...