Going into this morning, most economists expected initial unemployment claims to improve, but after seeing the new report from the Department of Labor, few expected news this good.
New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 37,000 to a seasonally adjusted 335,000 in the week ended Jan. 12, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims fell to the lowest level since January 2008, but the big drop likely stems from a seasonal-adjustment quirk whose effects could quickly fade and push the numbers back up in the next few weeks. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to drop to 368,000 from last week's slightly revised 372,000.
The caveats certainly matter -- seasonal quirks don't last -- but for the record, the last time we saw a number this low, it was exactly five years ago this week.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold five of the last six weeks.
Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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When I read good news like this, my immediate reaction is to thank Mitt Romney for being such an incompetent, contemptible -- and unelectable -- jerk.
The thought of Romney taking credit for the hard fought gains of the past few years, gains that are occurring in spite of his party's constant attempts to obstruct and prevent progress at all costs, was one of the more infuriating parts of the campaign.
His promise to create "12 million new jobs" was a joke. That is simply the number that economists predict will be created if current trends continue. It literally requires no effort. But had he won *shudder*, come 2016 he would have been touting the success of his economic "plan". I bet he would have somehow found a way to take credit for these new jobless claims numbers as well.
George W. Bush was easily the worst president in my lifetime, but I suspect that Romney would have made everyone look back at Dubya's time in office and long for the "good ol' days".
Oh, absolutely. It would have all been attributable to employers becoming more confident in economic growth, debt reduction, and fewer "burdensome regulations" due to the forthcoming Republican Administration.
Low information strikes again. The actual number of jobless claims was 555,708. Sightly more than this time last year. Mr. Benen isn't kidding when he says the numbers are massaged.
Two points:
It is clearly stated that the 335,000 number is seasonally adjusted.
Secondly, even the number you're chortling over is still down 5% from the same period last year.
Sorry, you only get a C-.
Evidence:
This is what I think of every time Republicans try to argue with facts.
The problem w/ this argument is it does not reflect the fact that median income is below 2001 when the economy came to a near standstill over Sep 11. (see graph below) Is everyone happy w/ a job as opposed to not havng one yes. Sooner rather than later in this country we expect to move up
http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2011/09/02/business/economy/02economix-growth-chart3/02economix-growth-chart3-blog480.jpg&imgrefurl=http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2011/09/mean-vs-median-income-growth.html&h=327&w=480&sz=36&tbnid=DfNHQyHS-4qR6M:&tbnh=86&tbnw=126&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dgraph%2Bof%2Bus%2Bmedian%2Bincome%26tbm%3Disch%26tbo%3Du&zoom=1&q=graph+of+us+median+income&usg=__1193W3WlN1c157SAv668SqTgdEM=&docid=KNtYQ5mnJc_N8M&sa=X&ei=vUT4UMv6B5CB0AHg04DQCQ&ved=0CEkQ9QEwBA&dur=3155
Still too many unemployed not included in the number. Since moving I'm still looking for more work (I don't qualify for unemployment). My son recently graduated from a medical program and has dozens of applications out in response to ads, but no calls. Someone else I know has sent 25+ applications also in the medical field (different from my son) and hasn't gotten any calls. My son has called these places back and they say they are still reviewing applications weeks and even months later. One wonders if they are really looking to hire or just fishing.
It's entirely likely that what those hiring want is someone with 20 years worth of experience, but willing to work for wages barely above minimum wage.
Otherwise, some CEO may have to take less than a 100% bonus...
Although this could be construed as good news, I don't believe it reflects the reality of the economic situation for those seeking employment in the U.S. The fact is that millions of jobs that were once full time are now either part time or, worse, created through temporary agencies that charge employers a hefty premium that is then reflected in the low wages the employee receives. Hundreds of thousands of people are underemployed, working at minimum wage jobs despite being well educated. These individuals, many of them young people, are struggling to make ends meet, often while paying off thousands of dollars in student loan debt. Even those "fortunate"individuals who could be called "optimally employed"--people who have been working throughout the "Great Recession"-- have seen their wages virtually stagnate; these people now struggle to afford even a small measure of the quality of life that they once enjoyed. And millions of seniors have seen their pensions slashed or completely obliterated when the companies for whom they worked during their "productive" years declared bankruptcy in the aftermath of the economic collapse. Those people are not eligible for unemployment despite the fact that the income they relied on is, in many cases, gone.
This horrific scenario is not the fault of the President, but of the Republican Congress that has refused at every turn to take action to improve the economic reality for the poor and the middle class. Just look at their inaction in providing relief for the victims of Hurricane Sandy! Even in the most dire of situations these idiots cared more about defeating the President than providing needed assistance for families in need.
Our biggest priority in this country should be campaign finance reform and an overhaul of the electoral process. We need people in our legislature whose allegiance is to the people who elect them, not the corporate interests who pick up the tab for their perks.