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In 2011, the Republicans held the debt ceiling hostage, vowing to crash the economy on purpose unless their unconditional demands were met, and they enjoyed complete unanimity on the right -- every GOP lawmaker, pundit, and activist was fully invested in the plan.
In 2013, this is obviously not the case, with a growing number of prominent Republican voices balking at the entire endeavor. Just today, Charles Krauthammer, a prominent conservative pundit, told Republicans they "won't get" their ransom, they'll have to "give in" eventually, and they should "forget about forcing tax reform or entitlement cuts or anything major." Jennifer Rubin added, "The jig is nearly up.... [T]he threat of bumping up against the debt ceiling is not realistic and hence not useful."
For the first time, it appears this point is not lost on House Republicans.
Republicans appear to be willing to avoid a showdown over the debt limit and instead use the sequester as their main negotiating lever in upcoming fiscal fights with the White House and Senate Democrats.
House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., said Republicans at a closed-door retreat in Williamsburg were weighing a short-term increase in the country's borrowing limit, giving all sides time to work on a broader fiscal plan in March that would include substantial spending cuts.
"Sometimes you've got to lay down a sacrifice bunt," said Rep. Dennis Ross of Florida about the debt ceiling increase.
Ryan said he warned his GOP colleagues they had to "recognize the realities of the divided government that we have." This is the exact opposite of the posture Republicans took on the debt ceiling several weeks ago, and bears no resemblance at all to what they said in 2011.
It would probably be an overstatement to say Republicans are already surrendering, but let's just say they've taken the white flag off the shelf, even if they're not yet ready to wave it.
That said, it also appears the congressional GOP hopes to trade one hostage for another.
Even if Republicans now seem to realize they can't follow through on their debt-ceiling threats -- they really should have thought this through beforehand -- GOP policymakers still appear committed to aggressive confrontations on automatic sequestration cuts and funding levels for the government itself.
To be sure, these threats carry a punch. The sequester includes deep cuts that neither side wants and a fight over spending levels may very well lead to a government shutdown, but neither pose the catastrophic dangers associated with a genuine debt-ceiling crisis -- and even House Republicans seem aware of this, which is why they have no intention of shooting this hostage.
There's apparently growing GOP support for a clean, short-term extension of the debt ceiling -- which, as we discussed yesterday, doesn't seem to make any sense at all -- which would presumably set the stage for additional talks. This will play out soon enough, but at a certain level its impact is limited. Once everyone in Washington -- Democrats and Republicans, the White House and Congress -- realizes that GOP leaders aren't prepared to allow a default on our obligations, the game is effectively over.
House Republicans can vote on a debt-ceiling increase once a week, once a Congress, or somewhere in between. Either way, once it's clear they won't shoot the hostage, their leverage has vanished.
As Greg Sargent concluded yesterday, "Republicans need to accept the inevitable: Either agree to a clean debt ceiling hike, or accept the need to compromise, agree to a deal with revenues that can pass the House with Dems, and attach a debt ceiling hike to that. The easiest way out of this hostage crisis is for Republicans to release the hostage."
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Republicans appear to be willing to avoid a showdown over the debt limit and instead use the sequester as their main negotiating lever in upcoming fiscal fights with the White House and Senate Democrats.
I don't think the term "Negotiating lever" means what they think it means. The GOP rammed this deal through because they wouldn't come to reasonable compromise in the first place. More and more of America is recognizing that. the biggest flash point in the sequester is the defense cuts. Is the GOP message going to be "Compromise with us or we implement the military cuts we already agreed to"? Hard to see how they spin this in their favor.
I love it . but..but... I thought government spending didn't create jobs.
The underpants gnomes are in charge of defense spending, so it's different!
We have spent the better part of the past 3 years talking in hostage terms instead of hearing about policy proposals, machinations instead of policy hearings, and political recriminations instead of governmental policy solutions!
I just wonder if the Republican brand realizes we're tired of their reruns, and have turned the channel to one that will work toward a future of community where government is efficient and works on behalf of the majority of the American people!
We no longer appreciate the Republican political storyboard of hate and division, austerity and pain, while their cronies with the capital continue to cash in! -Kevo
Ah yes, the party of free stuff has sounded the clarion call for more borrowing/printing/spending. It never fails to amaze me how commentariat shills for actions they'd never perform in their own lives. Does anyone here borrow 40% of their regular budget day in and day out? With no intention of repayment?
Re " ...Does anyone here borrow 40% of their regular budget day in and day out? With no intention of repayment?"
Yep, when I'm between jobs I really do borrow money for day-to-day job-hunting expenses. And my banker, with whom I've been doing business all of my life, knows I'm gonna pay back every borrowed nickel.
Unless I tell him that my debt-ceiling won't let me do that.
"Free stuff." That's Wingnut for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and unemployment insurance, the school lunch program, and, as best I can tell, national parks, highways, public schools, police, fire and ambulance service, mental health services, relatively clean water and air.
Truly, America would be a utopia if not for all these spoiled, lazy peons contributing nothing whatsoever but getting "free stuff" from the government.
Love the snark Steve w/bazillion numbers! -Kevo
The gang that couldn't shoot straight takes a hostage. A sacrifice bunt? You know if maybe they didn't see the world through bad-metaphor-glasses, reality would be clearer to them.
Shooter . . . Remind me again which party it was that financed two completely unnecessary wars on the national credit card, gave rich people a tax cut without offsetting cuts in other areas, provided an unpaid-for prescription drug benefit that drives up costs of care by eliminating competition that lowers drug prices, and that wants to put what seems like every other person in the country in prison (see their latest proposal to imprison pregnant women for taking any substance that might harm a fetus--including things like alcohol that are perfectly legal)?
If I'm not mistaken, it's the same party that loves corporate giveaways like tax breaks for offshoring jobs and subsidies to ridiculously profitable industries. You know, "free stuff."
Spare me the BDS. Are you praising large spending or condemning it?
Shooter - He's condemning people who fail to see that the vast majority of our spending was done by the very same people trying to say Obama wants to give out free stuff.
If you look at the budget issue and see where these were signed into law and who proposed them the financial issues are nearly unanimously republican bills, mostly signed under Regan or GWB.
I just wonder how far this is actually going to go. It puts the President in a position of basically being able to obstruct the GOP by calling there bluff by just say "no I'm not signing this". I have a feeling that if Obama vetoed something that came to his desk it would be like throwing a rock into a pond because I honestly don't think the Tea Party people understand the power of the office.
goodness I hadn't thought about that but they would freak out. I doubt they even know he's permitted to veto bills. It would be worse than executive orders I imagine.
How sad is it that I firmly believe that a portion of a branch of government is likely unaware of the veto power. I mean when was the last time Obama vetoed a bill?
Re: #3.1
According to Wikipedia, President Obama has vetoed twice.
gotta say, that's relieving to hear. Though it's not beyond the realm of possibility to think that GOP will make a veto partisan all of a sudden this term. They are loving this "king Obama" meme right now due to the executive orders.
The GOP don't understand simple math.......a third of governing power is less than two thirds, and not control. What idiocy make them think they can dictate only what they WANT? If they don't comprehend this simple arithematic, who in their right mind think they have the answers to solving our fiscal issues?
I agree with kevo- the Republican brand has grown stale.
And the 'sequester cliff' is as painful for the Republicans (if not more) as it is for the Democrats. Obama can just let those cuts happen, take credit for cutting government, and the Republicans are left with no hostages left to 'shoot'.
They will be forced back to the table to restore the cuts their corporate hosts want back (such as from the defense industry).
And that will cause all sorts of consternation among the Teapers, who now don't have nearly the leverage that they used to have.
Their false claim that they are concerned about spending will be exposed. It is only specific spending they hate......Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, Infrastructure, Education, EPA, Disaster Relief.....you know the things that benefit our society. I predict they will have a fit over any reasonable defense cuts......their souls will be exposed and it won't be pretty. It will be a continuation of their anamosity to anyone that disagrees with their lunacy. halThey lost the northeast in November....what is their response after Sandy....aid must be offset.....did't hear it during Katrina or the disasters in FL....lost the Latino vote...no immigration policy, lost the African American vote, they are the takers and aid should not be given, lost Asian votes.....?....lost Women votes....challegne and impede their healtcare options......these folk are inheritly evil folk that use the Bible as a crutch....HYPOCRISY at a level never seen before!!!
Would you say the GOP is... beating a hasty retreat? (It was too good to resist.)
"The jig is nearly up...."
Shouldn't that be "gig" instead of "jig?"
Not if you are a fan of old movies "pal "
The jig is always up .
The gig is up when the concert is over.
This blog has a few professional geezers
Actually, the sequester "lever" was created by both parties to force them to talk. Sequester is not well thought out but it both sides will have to talk to make it palitable. I think sequester means the defense industry is going to take a significant hit. We just don't know where.
Watching the defense industry it appears they think they are going to take a hit. The President is shutting down Afganistan early, that also indicates a hit is coming.
I think Social Security and Medicare are safe for the next four years.
The President is shutting down Afganistan early, that also indicates a hit is coming.
I don't think the average Joe realizes how much the defense contractors need an ongoing war.
When you see the camera footage of those smart missles ... about $58,000 per copy
The standard helo mounted helfire
http://www.redstone.army.mil/history/systems/HELLFIRE.html
The more advanced smart bombs ...can run into millions each .
Goes like this : Boom!!! then :$ Cha Ching
You can buy a hellfire lot of those missiles for one F-16 of F-22!
You hit it, Eff, as usual.
These are highly advanced technological wars now. Contractors make billions when the government buys the non-compatible propriatary training systems now required to enable soldiers to learn new fancy ways of killing other human beings here in the US before they go to any conflict area. Contracters then get more billions redesigning the systems to actually work with other systems already in place. It's a sweet high dollar racket, which is why we have government contracting to begin with.
If we put HALF war's energy and budget into US infrastructure, alternative energies , and educating (not track training) our young people to assume control of their future, how much better off would this nation be?
Our precious elected officials are right now working very hard to maintain the status quo the whole the time they're complaining that the world is going to hell in a handbasket because of Obama. And too many citizens swallow this...
Dare we hope there is a crack in the brittle GOP armor??
Boehner will have to keep them from chasing the next shiny object like impeachment talks however ridiculous they are. If there was any common sense, they would actually legislate for a while so they have a record to run on. "I obstructed Obama for the last 4yrs" is not a good campaign slogan for the mood of the nation.
I would like to see our elected representatives (President, House and Senate) work together and have big public discussions about how best to address short term stimulus and long term debt reduction.
No "hostage taking". No posturing and punditry. I'm sick of it. We need people who can do arithmetic.
Getting people back to work - and jobs that pay a living wage - is what we need right now. This would bring in revenue and decrease cost of safety-net programs (unemployment, food stamps, Medicaid).
Social Security / Medicare need to be looked at and savings found. But we need to remember that for many people, they were never able to save for retirement during their working years (were just scraping by) - and are dependent on SS to survive. Older people can't get health insurance - so are dependent on Medicare.
We should reduce the cost by reducing the need.
We have done this sort of thing in the past - we can do it now. Right?............... Right?...............
This morning I am beginning to wonder if the fiscal cliff and Sandy bills don't signal a new era where Boehner has a little more leverage over the inmates in the Republican wingnut house caucus.
I am torn, as a partisan Democrat I loved watching the Republican brand self-destruct. As an American I like a two party system.
Have you been watching the Fox clown car. I wouldn't be surprised if they forced some of their more flaky nuts to introduce articles of impeachment over the 23 executive actions. In the process Fox and the NRA might just further weaken the Republican brand.
Re: #11
I don't see that at all. I see Mr. Boehner being the sensible adult and getting things done in spite of the "wingnut" children.
The one thing I really wish the president would do is to educate the general public about what the debt ceiling is and the role the president really has in spending. The president does not spend anything that Congress has not already legislated. The money going out today, including the deficit, has all been appropriated (promised to be spent) by Congress (most of it under Bush as it would be). The president is only following the law and spending what he is supposed to. Obama has been soft when saying that it is just "paying the bills". He needs to point out that is this what Congress has promised.
I hope he stands his ground and will not negotiate the debt limit and lays it all at the feet of Congress, specifically the whack bat Sh%$ crazy Republicans.
The people are indeed aware of this. The right wing is only speaking to their base.
Actually, as the recent polls indicate, the President has been doing a good job of explaining. Even some in the press are beginning to understand that the debt ceiling is about paying the bills we have already incurred.
Ryan is a slimy little loser weasel.
There was once a story of a dog, looking scruffy with its tongue hanging out after wandering for miles trying to summon help for its kidnapped master, shot dead by a farmer thinking it was a dangerous rabid animal. There is a parallel story here my fellow Americans. Our country is in big trouble and is in great mortal danger. While it is unfortunate that the messenger cannot deliver the dire message without looking like a rabid dog, it is even more unfortunate that the person in charge of this great (farm)house of ours and his followers (that includes me because I voted for the man twice), is too busy celebrating his win and will not stop celebrating until he has completely destroyed the other side. Heavens help us all!
Re: #14
Our country is in big trouble and is great mortal danger.
We agree on that much.
But, we appear to disagree about who the "dog" is, who the "kidnapped master" is and who the "farmer" is.
I think the "kidnapped master" = the working class - those who are unemployed or underemployed and those working for stagnant wages. The "farmer" = the obstructionist republicans. The messenger is President Obama.
They don't need any help - they are doing it all by themselves.
I rest my case. Maphi, It doesn't really matter who's on the other side of your equations. When the house falls, it is going to happen on his watch.
What do you mean you rest your case? You have no case. All you want to do is blame the President when it is clearly the GOP that is the issue here. The facts are that the economy would be doing much better if the GOP had not obstructed Obama's jobs bill. But the GOP knew this and were so desperate to defeat him that they did it anyway. Again you have no case except a case of hatred for Obama. By the way I don't think for a minute that you voted for Obama twice. If you truly believed that Obama was the bad guy you had plenty of evidence before November of 2012 and wouldn't have voted for him then. So quit with your lies.
It's an encouraging sign that the GOP seems to be pulling back on its 24/7 flame-throwing strategy for governing, but I still don't like the idea of a short-term, hostage-taking-every-three-months resolution.
The Republicans should invite Obama to their retreat for a real grilling with a totally devastating Q&A period where they can trap Obama with their Wascally Qwestions.
I think he would agree to face off with them again. I wonder why they will never invite him, after all, they were able to weally fwighten him with tough qwestions in January of 2002.
I think we can see the finger prints of fanaticism all over this stuff,. as in
"A fanatic is one who redoubles effort having lost sight of the objective".
i.e.- the extreme minority tail is waging the traditional majority in the GOP!
There are,. a have been many conservatives making important contributions
to the national forum.