Last week's news on initial unemployment claim was unexpectedly great, but there appears to be some volatility in the figures. Today, the new report from the Department of Labor is far less encouraging.
The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits jumped 20,000 to 362,000 in the week ended Feb. 16, the U.S. government said Thursday, keeping claims at a level that suggests slow but steady improvement in the nation's labor market. The increase may have been partly influenced by a federal holiday on Monday -- full claims data for four states including California and Virginia were not completed on time and had to be estimated. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected claims to rise to a seasonally adjusted 351,000.
To reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold nine of the last 11 weeks.
Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
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Steve, at this point you are simply reporting background noise. Take your own advise, trendlines are important. Weekly fluctuations don't mean much.
All of that said, you will notice that the new normal seems to be higher than the 2007 normal. That might be structural.
The jobs statistics are why Obama is hammering Republicans on the sequester. They fail to appreciate that jobs are still the biggest issue with voters and if the sequester causes people to lose jobs, that fact is going to be driven home by the Dems and Obama. And then public opinion is going to push the Republicans into a corner; they will have to choose appeasing their base and losing the independent voters or the Republicans can follow the polls, mitigate any further damage before the 2014 elections and lose their base.
A lot of the problem as I see it is the lack of loyalty that corporate America has towards this country that gave them a safe haven for growth. The rich and shameless have decided that their only concern is their own wealth. No longer do they recognize the parts played by our government and our citizens in providing the means and freedom for them to acquire said wealth.
The common man is expendable only the stockholders carry any weight. If savings can be had by letting the business outsource or by skimping on quality then it is done.
To accept this as the new normal is to disregard the American spirit. Change will come. That change may be slow or it may come as a whirlwind as unhappy masses rally together around a solution from out of left field.
16 hour days at a dollar a day and child labor were once the norm until the workers united and fought to be recognized.