Getty Images
In 2009 and 2010, the single most common Republican talking point on economic policy included the word "uncertainty." I did a search of House Speaker John Boehner's (R-Ohio) site for the phrase "economic uncertainty" and found over 500 results, which shows, at a minimum, real message discipline.
The argument was never especially compelling from a substantive perspective. For Boehner and his party, President Obama was causing excessive "uncertainty" -- through regulations, through the threat of tax increases, etc. -- that held the recovery back. Investors were reluctant to invest, businesses were reluctant to hire, traders were reluctant to trade, all because the White House was creating conditions that made it hard for the private sector to plan ahead.
It was a dumb talking point borne of necessity -- Republicans struggled to think of a way to blame Obama for a crisis that began long before the president took office -- but the GOP stuck to it.
That is, Republican used to stick to it. Mysteriously, early in 2011, the "economic uncertainty" pitch slowly faded away without explanation. I have a hunch we know why: Republicans decided to govern through a series of self-imposed crises that have created more deliberate economic uncertainty than any conditions seen in the United States in recent memory.
E.J. Dionne Jr. had a great column on the larger pattern today.
Ever since they took control of the House of Representatives in 2011, Republicans have made journeys to the fiscal brink as commonplace as summertime visits to the beach or the ballpark. The country has been put through a series of destructive showdowns over budget issues we once resolved through the normal give-and-take of negotiations. [...]
The nation is exhausted with fake crises that voters thought they ended with their verdict in the last election. Those responsible for the Washington horror show should be held accountable. And only one party is using shutdowns, cliffs and debt ceilings as routine political weapons.
Quite right. Looking back over the last two years -- in fact, it's closer to 22 months -- Republicans have made three shutdown threats, forced two debt-ceiling standoffs, pushed the country towards a fiscal cliff, refused to compromise on a sequester, and have lined up even more related fiscal fights in the months ahead.
So, here's the question for GOP leaders: where did your concern about "economic uncertainty" go? Here's the follow-up: do you think a never-ending series of hostage standoffs inspire investors, reassure "job creators," and improve consumer confidence?
Or is it more likely Republicans are doing the very thing they said they opposed in 2010?
Leave a Comment:
You mean they need a new lie of the day...
They are milking the ant vs. the 47% grasshopper morality play for all its worth.
The pity is that the Dems have ceded the script writing to the GOP. We are living in their narrative, not one the President has written. Just count the stories on this blog regarding austerity versus those regarding jobs. It is challenging to tell the Keynesian story about the modern consumer economy because the last 2 million years of survival pressure was to deeply imprint behaviors that maximize hunter-gatherer zero sum strategies. The GOP are primitivists working to devolve modern economics to moronic economic strategies. A counter narrative is hard to tell.
We are not talking about Jobs and that suits the GOP just fine.
Very true John. The austerity voices are drowning out the truth.
Truth. They are winning because they have a truthy message that has the ring of truth, while we bring forward the facts which do not have the ring of truth.
When are we going to get off the rationalist high horse and start paying attention to the literary nature of politics. We must not only have the facts on our side, we must have a story that has the ring of truth. The Keynesian story sounds like magic.
The GOP narrative has the nation in its grip for compelling- almost behaviorally deterministic reasons. The ant vs. grasshopper story has the ring of truth because it feeds into hunter gatherer pattern recognition that are imprinted into our hunter gatherer brains. That is what we did- that has always been our economy- even predating homo erectus two million years ago. That is why the GOP message about slackers in the hunter gatherer tribe, versus winner / alpha elites running the tribe has the ring of truth.
What we need are clearer and convincing images for the Keynesian truths that Krugman, Stiglitz and Reich make convincing with facts and methodical argument. We need more. We need stories that convince people in their gut- showing them why this is not about ants and grasshoppers.
John, it's not quite as bad as you make it seem. The ant/grasshopper meme is not a hunter-gatherer one but rather a farmer meme which teaches agricultural practices against the hunter-gatherer ones.
What's ironic about this is that the memewar pits the NRA/hunters against the party which is advocating investing for the future.
The metaphor that both sides are using is the machine; the idea that the universe and the economy are each a machine that is self-correcting and efficient.
There is a very good little book, The Gardens of Democracy: A New American Story of Citizenship, the Economy, and the Role of Government by Eric Liu and Nick Hanauer (available for a few dollars on Amazon and also as an e-book) that does a good job of critiquing both sides and offering a new way of seeing things. It offers the image of the garden which needs to be tended as a better image of reality.
This is entertaining. Do you not see a disconnect between Govt claiming it can spend without end, while the voters have to scrimp, save, and spend with the fear of lost jobs and imploded investments? Especially since that philosophy has produced nothing like a revival, just more debt?
But hey, teaching people that one can borrow without repayment is the "free stuff" way isn't it? Yessiree, integrity need not apply.
Machines self correct? On the contrary, the fundamentalist invisible hand self-correction idea is extremely organic. It is social Darwinianism.
D.C. On the contrary, preparation for times of hardship significantly predates the agricultural revolution. Storing of nuts which non hominids engaged in was expanded by drying fruit in the sun. Prior to the use of fire for smoking and drying (which some speculate Homo Erectus understood), Oldowan tools could be used for cutting meat into the thin strips necessary for drying. Along shores, meat could have been salted in briney solutions or packed in salt although there is little evidence of this in the archelogical record.
So strategies against famine were burned into our neurology long before the development of agriculture, and it is these primal patterns that the primitivists such as the GOP trolls in congress and blogs are leveraging. There are takers and makers, and the problem is freeloaders, not that market forces are cannibalizing the consumer economy by reducing wages and exporting or automating jobs.
Alternatively, the ant and grasshopper theme can be torqued to render guidance that is progressive rather than harshly darwinian. Disney's 1934 version (youtube) is an example of this sort of progressive morality- the grasshopper is not left to his fate but taken in by the elightened elite. It is almost Rooseveltian in the idea of WPA like support for artists.
well we see that you can only use a bag of tea maybe 10 times then it is just dirty looking color water, with no taste.
so they will have to come up with something else as We the People notice every thing they say is not true or has not and will not come about.
It's a means to an end. Temporary uncertainty as the path to permanent certainty, i.e., endless GOP rule.
We are tired of the fake crises, tired of having to call our congressmen and senators every morning, tired of the finger pointing. We all want them all to stop the posturing and get the job done.
We also want them to take some responsibility for having created the problems and take responsibility for the solutions.
I'm with you, bflynch. Whether it's background checks on gun purchases or protecting women against violence, accepting that the President can choose a person to serve as Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense or believing that what happened in Benghazi was a tragedy that can't be blamed on the Chief Executive, I'm just tired of Republicans stalling at every turn. There's no desire to come to consensus on anything or even a rational explanation for the utter blockage of the legislative process in general.
But then loudly and publicly blaming the President for the sequester is beyond belief. After taking the sequester option instead of the Grand Bargain offered by President Obama in 2011--which was bad enough--the Republicans in the House proceeded to take a winter vacation last week, rather than lifting a finger to avert this needless angst for everybody but true desperation for the ones who are most directly affected.
Yeah, I'll bet they're upset about the President taking his case outside the Beltway to explain to the citizenry who's holding up progress. What do we have to do to get the message across that they need to start acting like the responsible legislators they were elected to be?
In other words...Agree with Hussein on ALL issues...spend til financial collapse on failed "Entitlement" programs, dump 11-25 MILLION illegals into an economy where Americans have been out of work 2 years and longer into the workforce to fight with Citizens for the few jobs out there? Credit downgraded under this failure, This administration having spent more than EVERY ADMINISTRATION previous and the conservatives should just "Go along" with this unmitigated failure??? This Failure just got a tax increase.. and NOW wants to "get his beak wet" in the taxpayers pockets AGAIN? The Conservatives are the only ones acting responsibly in Government now. Hussein just wants more and more Americans on Government programs that can't be afforded...get a clue.
Go look at the history of the German Reichstag in the Weimar Republic, 1931-33. In 1931 the Nazis got sufficient votes to become the second-largest party in parliament. They then began a campaign of obstruction and created crises, forcing more elections, becoming the largest single party in parliament and thus putting in Hermann Goering as President of the Reichstag, then using that power to create more obstruction, leading to another election as they campaigned against the "do nothing" Reichstag and promised if they had power they would solve the problems. And on January 20, 1933, they got their wish. We all know how that turned out...
In 1856-60, southern members of Congress instituted a similar campaign of obstruction, pushing to overthrow the Compromise of 1850, promising that if slavery were allowed throughout the western territories that the obstruction would end. We all know how that turned out...
We are not dealing with a group of "conservatives." We are dealing with far right revolutionaries, whose goal is the overthrow of the republic. They need to be seen as the traitors and enemies they are, and treated as such.
JL: what do we have to do? Just keep calling our representatives in congress and our senators, keep blogging, keep making noise. And do not listen to the lies.
We must run good candidates and vote for them. Do not let people like Scott tell their lies -- like the Nazi's big lie: We were stabbed in the back.
To know why there is a GOP crisis strategy, you have to know who are the current power brokers in Washington – the Kochs. This is the way they have operated for decades. When they teamed up with Karl Rove and his “wedge and win” strategy to win so overwhelmingly in 2010 on the federal and state levels, they gained the power to play the crisis game. It helped that they had the Senate Republicans play the filibuster game. This assured them of ruling as the minority in the Senate. As operators of corporate entities, like Georgia Pacific, they know that truth telling is no virtue. They can’t be trusted. You can’t depend on them to carry out mutually agreed upon solutions, if it doesn’t get them richer.
E.J. Dionne Jr. is correct: The nation is exhausted with fake crises that voters thought they ended with their verdict in the last election. Those responsible for the Washington horror show should be held accountable. And only one party is using shutdowns, cliffs and debt ceilings as routine political weapons.
The Kochs have less power today than they had in the last Congress but they are still potent. They still spend $30 million on lobbyists who keep the majority of Republicans in Congress in line.
Obama has the Kochs figured out and has more resources than the Kochs do, but the Kochs will only be defeated on an issue by issue and state by state basis. They won’t give up easily.
“We the people” can help Obama and America by doing to the Kochs what is happening to Wal-Mart – don’t buy their Koch Industries products! The Koch products are everywhere but if enough of us would buy less of their products, we can send them a message they understand --- we can take away some of their riches. We can impose sanctions on the Kochs.
Boehner and his Repulican crew can be referenced for what they're worth by reading T.S. Eliot's The Hollow Men! -Kevo
So...If I get you right, The Credit downgrading, The debt exceeding the US's GDP and the imminent collapse of the entitlement programs finances as well as the current situation of more Americans out of work than when this failure took office is "not real" and the conservatives are just being obstructionist to this guy's unprecedented spending for "spite".....Correct? Earth to Liberals.........
Ah, a new troll to chum the water.
Scott, it's really simple math; for the longest time, government revenues have been 20ish% of GDP and reasonably close to expenditures. Somewhere along the line of the previous administration (not to assign blame, just a time-line), revenues were cut to under 17% of GDP whilst spending grew to north of 22%. That gap is the deficit we face and the deficits already experienced are now part of our national debt.
Getting an increase in revenue by getting more Americans back to work would help more than simply cutting spending that is available to cut (some of it isn't like payment of interest on the debt, etc). And we should get revenues back up toward 20%; how to do this is a matter of taste. Ending carry interest on capital gains and a financial transaction or Tobin tax would be were I would start.
And you sir?
Mr. DuBois, presenting a moron like Little Scotty with facts only makes him more moronic.
Scott, the credit downgrading was a direct result of your Republican comrades playing debt ceiling crisis games, get a clue!
Actually...more could be done to employ Americans by getting out of the way of American business than by having your elbows out and palms up waiting for more tax money. The Energy field is booming (although gas is 4.00 a gallon) So allow the keystone to go and add THOUSANDS of jobs there, Instead of trying to kill the Coal industry...how about reigning in this out of control EPA and allow Miners in west Virginia to go back to work, and allow drilling off the Louisiana coast where so many in the Oil field business are STILL out of work thanks to the lands put out of reach thanks to this failure-in-chief. Taxing does NOT help business. LIBERALS do not help business, Instead Liberals are the problem.
Scott w/q bazillion numbers - we've been through this before, and you have failed to remember! I am not a liberal, I am a libertarian who is not daft or myopic, and I see the need for smart government! I've been residing in the Republican tent for over 30 years now!
My fiscal perspective is rather conservative compared to many on these threads, but liberty is not to be monopolized by any one people!
Your version of conservatism, I would proffer, has abandoned any pretense of liberalism - the very foundation of our social compact known as The U.S. Constitution!
Reactionary conservatism is anathema to our way of life as it has evolved over the past 230 years, and you and the other trolls who visit this site would do well to abandon your dogma and join the rest of us in celebrating ourselves and our beloved nation! -Kevo
p.s. If your myopia prevents you from knowing the knowable, may I point out to you here and now - many business owners are liberals, so your above argument is gibberish! -Kevo
@Tiger - oh no, he's been here for a while. Just click the Exclamation Point at the bottom-right of his message and select "Ignore This Author"
More like preside over the bankrupting of a nation...This 4 years by ALL the numbers has been an unmitigated disaster and yet...Hussein looks to add Benefits as America drowns. More EPA regulations is a Libertarian platform? Hmmmm.... And when did common sense become a "Dogma"? If you and your ilk wish to celebrate a bankrupting of a Nation because of these obviously failed policies....thanks... but, no thanks Kev
By ALL the numbers...? Dow is at 14,118 as I write. On Jan 19, 2009 (the end of an error) it was 7,949. I'll take that kind of failure any day over GOP leadership.
Now you'll say "it would be 20,000 if not for regulations." Which is a lie; more regulations were enacted under W than Obama, including in the energy sector.
I think BP and Shell are both examples of WHY we need MORE regulations, ones with real teeth, rather than less regulations. If I went out and killed 11 people and cost thousands of people their jobs, I'd be in jail for the next 10 lifetimes. For BP, it's just another unfortunate "ooops", and they're lobbying for more drilling leases and less regulations. The US is now one of the top oil producers in the world, with production increasing every month, yet we have gas prices higher than we have ever had at this time of the year. Kinda puts the lie to the "drill, baby, drill" meme that we have heard endlessly. We keep hearing dolts like Scotty say that if we just cut regulations and allow more drilling, things will be just peachy. Sorry, but lots of that oil is going to places like China, Japan and India, not to your local gas station. Energy companies bank on the gullibility of part of our citizenry, the greed of politicians, and the powerlessness of anyone to stop their outrageous price-fixing and price-gouging.
Yes Uffda
Scotty claims Obama is killing coal, when coal is really committing suicide. Cheaper natural gas is what behind drop in coal not regulations.
A study in German History and how it relates to our current US history..........
Listen Little Man - Wilhelm Reich
I heard a clip of new Secretary of Defense Hagel speaking to those at the Pentagon, and it "uncertainty" was a word he used 3 or 4 times in less than a minute. Perhaps he wasn't clued into the approach.
Of course, the military is supposed to be flexible and not sclerotic.....
So why is it you goose-stepping morons all put your Party ID number on your "handle"? Right, because it makes it easier for you to find your place in line, you worthless piece of something I scrape off my shoe.
This from a guy that is living in a bankrupt State...maybe look to a Republican State to see what being a Solvent productive State looks like. And are you wearing "Obama shoes" to go along with your "Obama phone"?
scottie-- no one even knows what you're talking about. You might try keeping your hallucinations to yourself.
Toaster, just put Scotty on ignore. I've been ignoring Scotty for a long time now.
The GOP lacks serious ideas - they follow a story line that is contrary to the facts and they think (Based on their deity - Ronald Reagan) that if you tell a lie often enough it will be believed - so they have to resort to this destructive behavior. Keep in mind their main goal - to dismantle the new deal programs - it's what their donors want above all.
You said. The GOP has absolutely nothing going for it intellectually, imaginatively (except for fantasizing) or practically. They are utterly unworthy of election.
Their deity isn't Reagan. Their deity was flexing its muscles in central Europe 80 years ago.
The welfare check is a Liberals "Deity". BTW,Do food stamps have Hussein's pictures on them? With record welfare and Food stamps..you would think Hussein DESERVES that "honor".
The fact that you refer to him as "Hussein" disqualifies you from having your opinions taken seriously.
Check your wallet, loser.
Referring to our current president as Hussein should automatically invoke a Godwin-like law.
Have you ever noticed that certain qualities seem to cluster together in people? Where there's racism, you know that selfishness and stupidity aren't far away. It's like they're all grouped on the same gene or something.
Some of these people truly need a public relations makeover and are blissfully unaware. We all see through you, scott and ned. I haven't read one thoughtful comment from either of you, just trollsmanship. Ick.
"Economic uncertainty" is just a Republican slogan, not something that they have any intention of doing anything about.
The definition of "entrepreneur" is someone who takes a risk. The term risk implies a certain degree of uncertainty. It's an accepted part of doing business, there is no such thing as "a sure thing".
Economic uncertainty is a by-product of Liberal policy. Gas prices TRIPLED under this failure, record welfare and food stamps being handed out...and yet Hussein delays the Keystone pipeline which would create ten of thousands of jobs.....This guy makes Jimmuh Carter look like George Washington!
and you make a pool of sludge look like Albert Einstein.
You say gas prices "tripled" under Obama? Then they must be around $14.25 a gallon where you live. In mid September of 2008, with your buddy W in the WH, I was paying around $4.75 a gallon here in the NW.
The reason prices dropped into the $1.25 range was because there was this little thing known as an economic collapse. From your statements, one must assume that you would prefer the economic environment in late 2008 to that which we have now.
Get your facts straight if you want to post here.
mpguy - scotty certainly would not understand the economic reality that demand for gas would rise with an improving economy, thereby driving the price up. That's exactly why, as you pointed out, the price was so low at the end of Bush's farce.
He probably also thinks that the rules regarding incandescent light bulb production are Obama's doing too.
And it's not just demand, either. The 'gummint' doesn't set gas prices. (Whoa, did she really say that??) They float on the commodities market at whatever price-per-barrel the market will bear, after which the oil companies get to charge the price at the pump. But that middle part, where the crude oil is traded, has some frequent participants. It's not coincidental that two of them are named Charles and David Koch.
Scott I don't know where you live or what you do for a living to have such a negative perspective, but in the last four years we have bought a home which has increased in value by 25% our 401K has doubled, our savings account has more than quadrupled, we have bought a new SUV and we take a nice vacation every summer, our children are all gainfully employed and/or are in college, my wife is a secretary and I'm a carpenter, and we actually buy our cell phones and even our own shoes.
There is one thing we are not uncertain about and that is our economic stability.
Gas prices TRIPLED under Obama.
No they didn't...on 1/21/09 the national average for a gallon of gas was around $1.65 [because the economy had collapsed in Q4 2008] and currently the national average is around $3.75. During that entire period, the national average has briefly gone above $4.00 twice.
see here
http://www.gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_price_chart.aspx?time=24
ps
you can also check the last five years prices for your city using the tool at the link
The Repubs see artificial budget crises as a way to lower the debt (albeit indiscriminately) without taxing the Rich Guys. Ergo, this is a tactic we will see from now on, until the Repubs are stung at the ballot box in 2014.
The kings of uncertainty and fear, the TPubs. I include them all into the soup that is the center right, all the way over to those rebels that would start another war here in America. Those that prop up business and fight for wealth, trying to persuade "other" people this will help them, or pointing at the enemy, calling those that want jobs and higher wages (pro-labor) lazy or commies. It's NOT.
The Wall St. wizards have figured the method to work with bubbles and juggling. We know with a fair amount of certainty, this cannot remain viable. There needs to be dedication to working out a budget that does not continue cutting jobs. People have to buy stuff. China et.al. have to be concerned. Even though Chinese people have been upwardly mobile, we are having the money taken from our hands here. We can't buy as much of this keeps going this way.
The Center Right supporters need to look at the actual present day situation on the ground. That is what we heard Bush II say. He will listen to the Generals on the ground. However true or false that may be, there was no dissension coming from the right during the actual magic act we endured to get us to this situation.
So, we have to stop pretending the policies did not get us here. They did. We lost jobs, relying on business people to be job creators is not without regulation for our interest. Left to their own devices, they will seek profit for themselves regardless of the loss for those they employ. There are companies that still value the dedication of employees and reward them with a reason to keep at it. But it sure seems they went too far with the disparity in lying themselves, giving tax cuts for doing nothing to help this country that provides them the means to operate their business. The Golden parachutes, rewarding stock spikes from giving pink slips is a false business, no product or service provided.
Wrangling dollars from customers by cutting services will not sustain us. The temporary money flow is hoarded and not distributed. We cannot distribute money to business if we slash spending, so there is something the TPubs can say they do care about. They don't have to feel a thing for any poor person that lost their job. They can hold their heads up and say "I care about business making profit". People need jobs for business to make profit. Revenue will be generated, so let's stop the acting like lower taxes equals economic growth. First, we need economic growth. That is the priority right now.
So, bite the bullet, do the job of closing loopholes for corporate jets, etc. It will only affect the Caymen Island accounts. There will be a little less going into those accounts, it doesn't affect the real economy, which is money changing hands. How much would having less money in numbered accounts hurt the economy?
I do not believe in have/have not, but I live in this world. Looking at the have nots affects me when they are blocked from participating. I am not ashamed to admit my moral dilemma.
I am a fortunate one who found it easier to find a long term career with benefits, I have the invisible knapsack. We had employers when I was starting out with the sense to know that cutting jobs was not for profit, but selling a good product with good service and content employees made profit and the economy work.
Some rationalize to easily that "they" are not worthy because of their own laziness. It's lazy to generalize and toss people aside. We don't want folks to be content with being miserable, but we work to get others up to higher ground. Encouraging the skills and minds to excel is a part of this, not saying you have to find your own way yourselves.
When folks have good jobs, they buy house, cars, TVs and continue the economic growth. It's a sick joke to say that cutting more and more will make things better for future generations
Not every person will excel, we are humans. But to stop trying because some very rich want more or there are arguments over ideologies is defeatist and causing "uncertainty".
What moron came up with the idea of economic uncertainty? By definition, there is ALWAYS economic uncertainty, unless you are somehow able to see years into the future. Companies in 2005 obviously didn't see crash of 2008 coming, (except for Wall Streeters who actually bet on it), even though this was supposedly a time of "economic certainty". We know those must have been times of "economic certainty" because repubs controlled all 3 branches of government, and we never heard concerns about "economic uncertainty" from the rabid right.
The rethugs use it to gin up fear within the masses who don't keep up with what's going on inside the political game. They hear "economic uncertainty" and fear another economic crisis. What's ironic is, those that will vote for these sleazy rethugs are the ones that will be hurt the worst, undereducated lower middle and lower class middle-aged and older white people.
My theory on these crisis creating Republican leaders are to teach the American people a lesson in voting, it is a statement to say that rich white men will get their way regardless of how the majority of the American people feel. It is sad that most people have stopped paying attention to their antics, I think it is important to pay attention and to hold them accountable, because in the end they will succeed in bringing the whole country to our knees just to show they can.
Better than Obama's gloom and doom scare tactics and misleading "facts".....what a leader. If I lead my folks that way I would be out of a job.
There you go again, fantasizing about your importance...