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In February, the U.S. economy added about 236,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level in nearly four years, renewing optimism about the health of the national job market. Of course, the optimism was immediately dashed by the realization that Congress is punching the economy in the gut, on purpose.
Merrill Lynch said this morning that job creation will likely shrink to below 100,000 in April and May as "sequester-related job cuts are implemented."
I mention this for a couple of reasons. The first, obviously, is the mind-numbing realization that Americans' own elected officials are choosing to deliberately make the economy worse.
But the other reason is that it offers an important rejoinder to those who spent last week asking whether President Obama "cried wolf" over the dangers associated with sequestration. The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, for example, said after the sequester hit, "(almost) no one noticed" and the "sky-is-falling language seemed overblown."
Outside Washington, as the Huffington Post reported, Americans are seeing a different message.
The Huffington Post reviewed dozens of local television news broadcasts, using the service TVeyes.com, to survey coverage of sequestration outside of the Beltway.
The local stations didn't ignore the controversy over the White House tours being closed, and several broadcasts featured political analysts arguing that sequestration's impact had been dramatically overhyped by the administration. But they did tend to dig more deeply into the ramifications of the cuts, looking at how people around the country -- besides the lucky Americans who get to tour the White House each year -- will be affected in their daily lives.
The sequester deadline passed nearly two weeks ago, and as a result of these unnecessary, across-the-board cuts -- cuts congressional Republicans now cheer as a GOP "victory" -- there's already ample of evidence of real harm to real people. In addition to Huffington's report last week, TPM had a related piece this morning.
Greg Sargent also had a sharp take on the larger dynamic.
There's been a good deal of triumphalism among Republicans about the sequester of late, with many of them claiming the cuts are a "win" for them, and others pointing to Obama's outreach to Republicans as proof that the White House is nervously recalibrating its strategy in response to his supposed slippage in the polls. Beltway press coverage -- understandably -- is heavily focused on the winners and losers of every micro news cycle and on whether the White House botched the theatrics of this battle (did Obama cry wolf?) by making a number of specific false sequester claims (which were rightly debunked by fact checkers).
But this local coverage tells a different story with a different emphasis. Real people around the country are beginning to tune into the possibility that these spending cuts could do real damage to their communities and to the country's economic recovery.
I heartily agree with all of this, but I'd add just one related thought.
Going into 2013, there was reason to believe the U.S. economy would start to see a more stable and robust recovery, with stronger growth and vastly improved job creation. With positive projections on the horizon, Congress has responded with the following: an end to the payroll tax break, more public-sector layoffs, the possibility of a government shutdown, the possibility of a debt-ceiling crisis, and a sequestration policy that's already undermining the economy.
Ideally, lawmakers would be taking deliberate steps to improve the economy, but at this point, I'd be satisfied if congressional Republicans stopped making things worse.
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The Sequester is the Global Warming of the Federal Budget. No matter how many economists (climate scientists) explain facts to the public, it's not real because the effects didn't happen all at once.
Didn't it snow last week? LOL
It is time we start talking the truth. There is a sequestration Illuminati conspiracy. The lamestream media won't report, but there are plenty of facts online.
Making things worse IS the plan...that much is obvious...I will be hiding under my bed for the rest of the sequestration...as there seems to be no end in sight for the cruelty demonstrated by the GOP/heartless and malicious corporations...
And yet the media keep reciting the GOP talking points. I just heard it in the morning with Chuck Todd. But right here in Utah they're closing the Ogden and Provo Small airports. There are a lot of furlough happenings, The president did no cry wolf. He let people know what will happen. Only the media did no understood it. Is hard for the media to recognized the true.
Ideally, lawmakers would be taking deliberate steps to improve the economy, but at this point, I'd be satisfied if congressional Republicans stopped making things worse.
I'm very concerned about all these cuts I'm hearing out of the media & politicians. It's just plain crazy and hopefully Democrats will not buckle. So many in the GOP we have learned aren't much in the common sense business when it comes to governing in a responsible manner.
Hopefully President Obama, the democrats and moderate republicans will give us confidence in that they will not screw one single senior citizen or poor person who need essential programs and safety net.
A "grand bargain" right now is irresponsible.
Why would you put your hope in obama? He has twice now threatened to not send out their checks. SS is sound, so for him to refuse to send the checks means he is the problem for seniors. The republicans keep passing bills to make things better, reid kills them in the senate.
"Ideally, lawmakers would be taking deliberate steps to improve the economy,..."
Ideally WE should have lawmakers in place that actually have a clue about their jobs and stop adhering to failed ideology.
I can't help but keep thinking that the worst of the sequester effects will most likely be felt very close to the midterms -- then Republicans will reprise their town cry of "Mr. President, where are the jobs!" and "Yes, we're in an economic recovery, but it should be much faster!' -- and the MSM will pair that with "Well, Republicans raise some legitimate questions about the economy...." while glossing over the GOP's deliberate and repeated torpedoing of the recovery. This whole endless cycle is infuriating.
I think the full effects are going to be felt by this summer when when people go on vacations. The airlines will have cut back schedules and there are lines at airports. In addition, there will be closures at national parks and monuments. States will announce further cuts in services because of the cut in federal funds. Some people have already lost unemployment benefits and that will put more people on the welfare rolls. There are some welfare programs that have been cuts such as WIC. Student loans will be harder to obtain. Defense cuts are already happening and layoffs along with furloughs, loss of work hours will continue throughout the summer. By the end of the summer, the majority of the sequester effects will be felt and when September comes, there will be a chorus of angry people. The question is whether Obama has the patience to wait out the Republicans and continue to make them the fall guys. The president has enlisted the support of business interests to pressure the Republicans and they will begin to feel the pinch so that will be just a matter of time when business says enough with the sequester and debt ceiling boondoggles.
I take your points, Mike.
I here you Mike and I give you this to ponder.... The house gave Obama an increase in taxes.... Obama had this to answer please lets increase more taxes so that I can add more spending... Lets call it like it is, I am going to be furloughed 1 day a week for 22 weeks, My government pay check is going to drop from 589 every 2 weeks to approximately 217 every 2 weeks... I have not received a cost of living increase in now 3 years, and yes a gallon of milk has gone from $2 to almost $2.89... Yes I am one of these overpaid Government workers, but you wouldn't know it by my paycheck... I wrote these No Labels Government employees who aren't being furloughed and they told me that wasn't what they were trying to do, there website is to try and get all congress to work together, not to be the voice of they constituents... Every member I have contacted say yes this Sequestration is horrible, but not what can they do to fix it.... Our elected officials all three parties are refusing to do what they were hired to do. If I failed to do my job, I wouldn't have a job anymore... Where do my alliances lay (fire them all and hire all new Congressman.
I love how this actually sounds
"Job losses everywhere except in DC; Obama made a big deal out of nothing!"
The more these people want to believe that DC is the center of the world, the more I want to put a boot to their noses.
Last week on the blog article about crying wolf, I posted a comment calling for all the bloggers on this site to give real examples of people who are being affected by job loses and furloughs. There were several responses, which brought tears to my eyes. We need to keep these stories coming like Real2013 above.
I suggest that responses tell stories of real individual people and families because those will get the most attention to the real consequences of this sequester.
In the article about halting White House tours, a lot of tolls complained about the calligraphers at the White House. None of them seemed to take into account that the President is trying to keep from cutting jobs. As long as a job cut is just seen as a vague job description, the human cost of the lay-offs is not noticed. Why does the White House have calligraphers? Who are these people? Men with families to support? Single moms?
What everyone needs to see is that every lay-off is a human being who is losing his/her life support or at least part of it. It also means that these people cannot spend money because their incomes have been cut. How many of these people will be eligible for unemployment compensation?
My best friend and his wife (I was watching their kids) were delayed the day after the sequestration (Friday before last) for 5 hours at a southern Florida airport because the mechanic that was supposed to be doing maintenance / inspecting their plane between flights was furloughed.
8 - You know how it is, when it happens to "other people" many tend to dismiss it, but when it happens a bit closer to "home" then we'll hear the town criers bemoaning how there was no "leadership" on the issue.....
A bunch of numbers is a vague, fuzzy statistic, but the real stories do need to be told.
My best friend and his wife (I was watching their kids) were delayed the day after the sequestration (Friday before last) for 5 hours at a southern Florida airport because the mechanic that was supposed to be doing maintenance / inspecting their plane between flights was furloughed
Stephen Bastas,
What airline were they flying? I am a little confused on how an airline - which is not government owned - was affected by the sequester. If the mechanic was furloughed, it would be because the airline was not making money. They do not get $$ from the government to pay their mechanics or pilots. I am not saying the sequester is not having an effect, but your example does not seem to involve the government in any way.
I was told that because I am working more then 30 hours a week I am considered fully employed and do not qualify for unemployment benefits, even though I will make less then 1500 a month with my military reitirement... One day a week doesn't sound like much but when you are receiving only 217 a pay day you tell me when benefits are needed. I am already resigned that come May I am going to have to use a HAFA Short sale for my house because I will not be able to afford it and due to it being a uninsured loan there is no way to refinance it... Thank you to all the wonderful elected officials who think cutting the budget and not finding away to work the sequestration for the wonderful bind you put us Government employees in.
I would feel much better knowing the politicians were cut and affected by the sequestration, and not us whom work everyday to just make it.
My right wing Congressman, Scott Tipton, 3rd Colorado district, is having to close his Cortez office. This will be replaced by a mobile office, i.e. his staffer from Durango will come over here once a week. Where or what the mobile office will be, the newspaper did not say.
How this will really affect us I am not sure because I am not sure our Cortez office was ever open anyway. At least anytime I tried to call it, I got an answering machine so I just call the Washington office. Not that calling ever does any good.
sequestration is all about abusing the victims of theft from price jacking. it's how wealth steals from the populations. they steal and horde. then they tell you that you cannot have back what they stole.
Regarding the February job numbers: go read Dean Baker's response (Beat The Press). This is the third year in a row that February has averaged 234,000 added jobs. Why? Mr. Baker believes it has a lot to do with milder winters allowing a head start on construction hiring. Therefore, watch for March and April to trend downward (same as the last two years) and it will probably be ascribed by the press to the sequester effects.
Goddamn, Benen. You're getting as spineless as Obama when speaking. Let me fix this for ya:
"Of course, the optimism was immediately dashed by the realization that REPUBLICANS are punching the economy in the gut, on purpose."
That's better.
The reason Republicans call it a "victory" is because it was. For them. A very nice political victory made possible by quite possibly the dumbest President we've ever had. The man gave all his cards away during the initial "fiscal cliff" negotiations and now all the idiot has left to get new revenues is to cut earned benefits and approve Keystone XL. The clown is already making that excuse. (And if it happens, that is every Democratic supporter's cue to stay home for the 2014 elections and give the moron the Congress he deserves. We will fight again in 2016. Democrats need to be told that enough is enough.)
Yep, I'm thinking pretty goddamned dumb. I told you when the fiscal cliff was over it was a really bad day for America. And now you're seeing that it was.
There's a piece in that liberal rag the Wall street journal from two days ago saying with no government cuts unemployment would be 7.1% right now. I've seen lower estimates if it had simply grown at the same rate it did under Progressive icons Reagan or either Bush.
I have a question that I hope someone on this board can answer...
When this article, and the government statistics, refers to the 236,000 jobs added to the economy last month, are they referring to the total gross numbers of jobs added or are they referring to the number of net jobs added after layoffs, firings, etc? It has always been my understanding that it was the gross number of new jobs.
The reason I ask is because if my understanding is true, then the comment in this article about how the sequestration will cause there to be only 100,000 in April and May is totally false and misleading. Whereas there may be layoffs associated with the sequestration, it seems that blaming it for a drop in new jobs is misplaced.
Can anyone site sources that could clarify this?
just asking...
I really have to question whether 'conservatives' regard other people as being people at all. Maybe, like Mr Teatime, they see other people as things. If that's the case, then it's easy to see how they could be elated at the harm that may be done. After all, if it's not happening to real people, it's not real harm. It's just part of a tiny game of one-dimensional chess to them, and they're out to win it.
You voted for obama, he told you he would veto any attempt to stop sequestration. Why are you upset he kept his promise?
I hope he makes it miserable on every single nut that voted for him rather than get rid of his pork stuffed friends in washington. Twice he warned you he would shaft seniors, and now you are upset he is shafting government employees outside of washington. republicans can not force him to do teh right thing, they have been trying for almost 3 years.
LOL, i guess republicans are holding any issue as hostage now, first sec of defens ewith mc caine and others then cia director with mr funny hair rand,today the budget deal with the failed vice president candidate, what's next, it seams that this strategy is working
You want REAL stories that affect REAL people. You do not have to look any farther, Than the Under Reported issue facing our Soldiers and Marines. Who received notification that an Education benefit long used by their respective services would be cut. Tuition Assistance helps the Service members and Spouses pay for higher education. This is not a "RIGHT" issue because it is the military; It is not a "LEFT" issue because it is Education; But an "AMERICAN" issue. It affects Americans who willingly said that they would fight to protect our Ideals, freedoms, and the US Constitution. The congress reached a deal 2years ago in part because no one wanted to be the one (BOTH PARTIES) to have Service Members in harms way not getting paid. Lets bring up the battle cry again because this is something both parties can agree on and that is where compromise has to start.
NEW UPDATE the US COAST GUARD is following suite in the actions of the ARMY and MARINES. If action is not taken soon this invaluable resource will be lost to our men and women in uniform. Once it is gone it may never come back.
It is time we start talking the truth. There is a sequestration Illuminati conspiracy. The lamestream media won't report, but there are plenty of facts online.
Here's another point, I gave 20 years of my life to allow theses politicians to have the freedoms to screw the people, I went to the exchange today and guess what? Walmart was cheaper... Imagine that and at Walmart I have to pay taxes on it. They don't match prices anymore like they used to on big ticket items. I was told that we have to match the cost of the economy, if I go to the exchange and buy smokes it now costs $7 a pack because out in town it costs $7.27 a pack. I remember last year when it was $6.89 a pack on base it was $5.00 imagine that... Same as alcohol prices, since the state of Washington pays so much for alcohol taxes, I have to spend more for a bottle of Rum then I would at the supermarket in California. Where does the extra money go for the taxes that are paid out on the economy not sure. As for my medical benefits they are decreasing too, we now pay 12% more then last year for the same benefits my premium went from $34 dollars a month to $44 imagine if I had a family too. They want us to go out in town for medical benefits which is going to cut how many military jobs at the Navy Hospital.
And this is the government you want running your healthcare decisions on the outside as well? I wouldn't trust them to walk my dog, and I don't even have one.