It's pretty remarkable how the Department of Labor's reports on initial unemployment claims just keep getting better.
The number of people applying for new U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 332,000 in the week ended March 9, marking the second lowest level in five years and indicating that the labor market continues to improve. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected claims to rise to a seasonally adjusted 350,000 from a revised 342,000 in the prior week.
To put this in perspective, the 332,000 filings is the second best total we've seen in the United States since January 2008 -- just a few weeks after the start of the recession. This, along with the GDP projections, retail sales, manufacturing, housing, and Wall Street, reinforces the impression that the economy really is showing new signs of life (at least until Congress screws it up).
That said, to reiterate the point I make every Thursday morning, it's worth remembering that week-to-week results can vary widely, and it's best not to read too much significance into any one report.
In terms of metrics, when jobless claims fall below the 400,000 threshold, it's considered evidence of an improving jobs landscape, and when the number drops below 370,000, it suggests jobs are being created rather quickly. We've been below the 370,000 threshold 12 of the last 14 weeks.
Above you'll find the chart showing weekly, initial unemployment claims going back to the beginning of 2007. (Remember, unlike the monthly jobs chart, a lower number is good news.) For context, I've added an arrow to show the point at which President Obama's Recovery Act began spending money.
Leave a Comment:
Is this before or after sequester?
Good question, did the sequester threats have no effect, or is the sequester a non-event.
If this is growth, is it real or manufactured? Was it ZIRP, QEforever, or do people really think they can make money in this environment? Time will tell.
Look at that, two choices in an argument, but both nonsense. Gee, which one do I pick?
And on that note, it's snowing this morning. Right now. So much for Global Warming, eh? Those rascally scientists and their fat research grants.
LOL
I was just asking a question. I wasn't implying a conclusion.
Wel, yeah, Ron, that was obvious to the normals. Just as obvious that Shooter was drawing false conclusions based on an inaccurately assumed implication.
SSDD
so, of course, this is just further reason why the GOP has to continue to commit ECONOMIC TREASON against this country
Along with the unemployment rate, the other key indicator to watch relative to employment improving is the labor participation rate. The february participation rate is 63.5%, down from 63.6% in January. The BLS tracks this data, here's the chart: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
The major thing to note is that the participation rate has been going down, and appears to be still going down. In other words, more people have been unemployed long enough they have dropped off the statistical radar.
Even with the somewhat smaller initial claims, this is not good news for the economy long term.
John, before you start preparing your Nobel prize acceptance speech you might want to consider the aging of our work force. Right now the baby boomers are entering the retirement phase of their lives. The baby boomer lump will have an impact on the participation rate.
Really? You're going to be sarcastic when you don't know that labor participation rate does not include retired people.
The labor force participation rate tracks people from 16 to 64, but a lot of people are taking early retirement as they are laid off by companies shedding older workers. I know it is illegal, but it happens and happens a lot. It just so happens you can start taking early social security at 62.
You are right, the economy is still weak. I also agree the unemployment rate statistics are as rigged as the inflation rate statistics. I also believe that our economy is changing as the result of automation a lot faster than our elected officials and our press understand. Manufacturing companies are moving back to the US because cheap Asian labor can't compete with robots. We are going to have a load of permanently unemployed people from now on. We need to figure out how to make them consumers.
That said I just don't think you can lay all of the sagging participation at the feet of the President.
John, I want to apologize. I shouldn't have been so sarcastic. You didn't say anything deserving of my comment about the nobel prize.
A fine example of Liberal behavior right there... willingness to change, compromise and apologize.
These are foreign traits to the angry Conservative, but a great lesson to the rest of civil society.
John's point remains. Job participation is going down, but retiring baby boomers only explains a fraction of the decline. Something more is going on. Something about our economy has changed.
But the workers and the consumers are the same people. 70% of our economy is based on consumption, but 80% of that consumer economy is being driven by people with just 16% of the wealth of the country.
This is not rocket science. You starve the consumer economy of money, and it stagnates, declines, and needs even fewer workers. Death spiral.
Ron is correct there is a baby boom factor, but the 12 million jobs that were lost in the months following the meltdown was not due to people spontaneously deciding that the worst depression since the 30s would be a good time for early retirement.
One way or another, we have to reverse the bleeding of cash out of the consumer economy. We must reverse the dive in purchasing power and get it back on the ascendant. If we take no action, the illogic of market forces will cycle between #1 and #2, progressively cannibalizing itself, while the wealthiest congratulate themselves on ever higher returns on investment, claiming an ever greater share of wealth of the country.
The smart thing is to adjust constraints so that Businesses directly feel the cost of #2 when they calculate the cost benefit of step #1. As anyone who has been in management knows, non quantifiable costs are difficult if not impossible to defend in a corporate environment. #2 is not measurable, but labor costs are so if you can cut costs through automation or off shoring, that is what delivers the biggest numbers in the profitability spreadsheet. So that is what the Romneys of America have been doing for the last 30 years and will continue to do, all the while congratulating themselves on their genius business moves.
They are numbskulls.
But their stupidity is entirely understandable. They are playing by the rules, and if the rules are skew outcomes towards cannibalism of the domestic consumer economy, then its not their job to change them or mitigate their negative effects.
So fast forwarding, the real challenges are
It is much much easier to pooh pooh the mind boggling challenges posed and simply fob our economic problems on a temporary blip caused by aging baby boomers, and that there is no structural failure. And it is a convincing argument because people really want to hear happy talk- that the ship is really not in danger- that its ok that we can evacuate the lower levels of the boat as we take on water, because it is just the natural cycle of water coming into and out of the boat as we ride demographic waves.
.
Hear that hollow metalic sound?
It's the sound of a can being kicked down the road.
I didn't say (or rather, write) any of that.
You might want to but you didn't. An apology begin, "I apologize for..." followed by a statement of what happened, a recognition of wrongdoing, and a promise to alter the behavior. Anything less is lip-service.
I'm waiting for Boehner or someone else finally just come out and say it:
"Don't believe in facts, people. Believe in us"
They've been saying this since the presidential campaign with the Paul Ryan tax plan... where have you been?
The only thing republicans care about are poll numbers. Specifically one poll, the Presidents job approval numbers. The lower they can keep them the better chance to win more seats in 2014. The problem is'nt all spending, its the craziness of the republican party. They're enjoying the hell out of keeping businesses on the edge of their seats with manufactured crisis after crisis. They filibuster anything or anyone that will move the country forward. Republicans like to say, get government out of the way and let the free market work. Well the free market is working well, it's working very well for the wealthy and Wall St, while too many on the lower rungs are struggling to make their mortage payments and put food on the table.
Awsome! So how do we count all the people that are out of work that haven't filed a claim, or benifits have run out, and they are not receiving anymore? Do they have jobs? Your still out of work. That's why stats don't tell the whole picture. Make sure you duck Maddow when your in Tucson!
you're still out of work
you're in Tucson
you are probably interested in cutting education
Jobless claims going down, market going up. my my smile