Kathy Hochul Flickr page

Winning.

As the Republican Party went to bed last night, the talk was that the loss in NY-26 wasn't a big predictor, didn't augur anything, whistle-whistle past the graveyard. "If special elections were an early warning system, they sure failed to alert the Democrats of the political tsunami that flooded their ranks in 2010," Republican Congressional Committee chair Pete Sessions wrote.

By morning, you could see signs that Republicans might be rethinking this one. Congressman Paul Ryan, whose budget proposal would end Medicare as we know it, said that Medicare certainly played a role in Democrat Kathy Hochul's win over Republican Jane Corwin. Mr. Ryan predicted that Democratic attacks would ultimately fail. "I personally don't think it will work," he told MSNBC. As the author of the Medicare plan, Congressman Ryan has a very vested interest in seeing it work over time, or at least on insisting that it will work until the Republican Party finishes backing away from it.

Closer to home, New York Congressman Peter T. King, a Republican, sounded more ready to sort things out. "It's a Republican district with a solid Republican candidate," Mr. King told the New York Times. "What went wrong? We definitely have to determine the extent to which the Medicare issue hurt us."

You could argue that Jane Corwin was a flawed candidate, failing to counteract her opponent's Medicare charges and just generally being lackluster. But part of what went wrong, as Ezra Klein notes this morning, is that seniors really do like their single-payer health care, and the rest of us are hoping to get that same deal one day.

With more than three-quarters of the precincts reporting, AP has called the congressional election in upstate New York for Democrat Kathy Hochul. Republican Jane Corwin was trailing by six points. Tea Party candidate Jack Davis, whose support was supposed to break toward Ms. Corwin, was polling below 10 percent.

This was the first federal election since Congressman Paul Ryan proposed a budget that kills Medicare. House Republicans voted for it, and Ms. Corwin said she would have joined them. That unpopular stance appears to have swung this election from a sure bet for Republicans to a loss.

The word on Capitol Hill is that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will call for a vote on the Ryan plan this week, possibly on Thursday. That would force Republicans in the Senate to take the same litmus test as their colleagues in the House, after watching what just happened in New York. Likewise, the 2012 Republican field has to formulate some kind of response to the Ryan plan. Oppose it, as Newt Gingrich did, and the party faithful will give you a drubbing. Support it, and voters will turn against you.

On Wednesday, we plan to bring you an exclusive interview with Senator Reid. Official responses from the parties, after the jump.

From Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Steve Israel: "Today, the Republican plan to end Medicare cost Republicans $3.4 million and a seat in Congress. And this is only the first seat....We served notice to the Republicans that we will fight them anywhere in America when it comes to defending and strengthening Medicare."

From National Republican Congressional Committee chair Pete Sessions: "History shows one important fact: the results of competitive special elections from Hawaii to New York are poor indicators of broader trends or future general election outcomes.  If special elections were an early warning system, they sure failed to alert the Democrats of the political tsunami that flooded their ranks in 2010."

AP

The Tea Party Express rode into upstate New York's special congressional election today, with a presser to dis the Tea Party candidate, Jack Davis. The Tea Party Express is trying to save the seat for Republican Jane Corwin, who endorsed Congressman Paul Ryan's Path to Prosperity budget and has been paying for it ever since. Mr. Davis has been polling above 20 percent in the race for NY-26 -- bad news for Republicans in a statistical dead heat between Ms. Corwin and the Democratic candidate, Kathy Hochul.

"Jack Davis is no more 'Tea Party' than Barack Obama," said Tea Party Express chairwoman Amy Kremers. Ms. Kremers was joined on stage by TEA New York, which says Mr. Davis isn't anti-abortion enough to qualify as Tea Party. Carl Paladino, 2010 gubernatorial candidate, is also piling on.

But Mr. Davis does have at least some real support from other parts of the Tea Party. On April 8, he touted an endorsement from the Tea Party Coalition, a group so entranced, perhaps, by his rather (ahem) unique ideas to address unemployment that they neglected to post said endorsement on what seems to be their website. The Buffalo Tea Party, which hosted the national group when they showed up with Mr. Paladino in April, is also holding strong with Mr. Davis.

Of course, the reason the special election in New York's 26th district is even a story (aside from this) is the Republican budget which Congressman Ryan authored -- and defended again today in Chicago (full text). The same one for which Republican candidate Jane Corwin said she would've voted. She hasn't rescinded that endorsement, and Democratic candidate Kathy Hochul became the first to make Ryan's budget a campaign issue in this election cycle. Since then, this election has been a little nuts. No news as to whether yet another of the myriad Tea Party groups will endorse Corwin or Davis. It's only Monday, so the possibilities are endless. We'll keep you posted.

The surprisingly contested special election for an upstate New York congressional district is now also wildly contested. Tea Party candidate Jack Davis is acting as a spoiler in former Congressman Chris Lee's old NY-26, reporter Phil Fairbanks of the Buffalo News told us last night. He's polling at above 20 percent, which the Republican Party cannot let happen if its candidate, Jane Corwin, is to break her dead heat with Kathy Hochul and keep this redder-than-red district for the GOP.

Already, Karl Rove's American Crossroads has begun spending its $650,000 ad buy in the race on attacking Mr. Davis. Yesterday, the local Tea New York again disowned Mr. Davis for -- among other infractions -- not being sufficiently anti-abortion. In response, Mr. Davis pulled out of the debate held last night.

Now Rus Thompson of Tea New York the national TEA Party Express writes to say that the national TEA Party Express will show up along with wacky Carl Paladino next week to endorse the Republican, Ms. Corwin. "Jack Davis has nothing in common with the TEA Party movement," Mr. Thompson writes. "Who is he to proclaim himself the leader?"

They might ought to check that "nothing in common" part. Remember when Mr. Paladino threatened to take out that reporter, during his run for governor last year? Remember that Mr. Paladino, who lost spectacularly statewide, won in NY-26? In the newly energized campaign to take down Mr. Davis, the National Republican Congressional Committee sent over the video you see above of Mr. Davis and someone on his staff not playing nice -- or, as they put it, "assaulting a volunteer."

UPDATE: I may have read Mr. Thompson's letter wrong about Mr. Paladino showing up personally. The former gubernatorial candidate may be there in spirit only.